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46th Canadian federal election

The 46th Canadian federal election will elect members of the House of Commons to the 46th Canadian Parliament. The Canada Elections Act requires that the election be held no later than October 15, 2029, but it may be called earlier.

If the Liberal Party wins this election, it would mark their fifth consecutive victory, beginning in 2015. If the Conservatives win this election, it would mark their first victory since since 2011. The election will be the second to use the electoral districts established in 2022.

Date of the election

Under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, a federal election must be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[3] The previous election was held in 2025, therefore an election must occur on October 15, 2029; however, the election may occur before the fixed deadline if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill (which has not happened since 1979) or a specific motion of no confidence (which has not happened since 2011). Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons and thus is more likely to lose votes in the House.[4][5][6]

Background

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, the incumbent Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney won a plurality of seats but failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, continuing their six-year tenure as a minority government and marking the third consecutive term of a Liberal minority government. The party had a majority government in 2015, after nine years of Conservative leadership, but later it was reduced to a minority government in the 2019 election and remained as such in 2021. The Conservative Party continued as the Official Opposition, with party leader Pierre Poilievre losing re-election in his seat of Carleton after nearly 21 years to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.[7] Damien Kurek, the Conservative member of Parliament–elect for the riding of Battle River—Crowfoot, resigned on May 2, 2025, allowing Poilievre to run in a by-election.[1]

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democratic Party, also lost his seat,[d] with the party winning just seven seats, resulting in the loss of the party's official party status for the first time since 1993. As a result, Singh announced his intention to resign from the leadership of the NDP once an interim leader was chosen.[8] Jonathan Pedneault, the co-leader of the Green Party, was not elected to a seat in Parliament, with the party winning just one seat and receiving its lowest share of the popular vote since 2000. As a result, Pedneault announced his resignation as co-leader shortly after the election.[2]

Notes

  1. ^ Although parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats), thus rendering it impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  2. ^ Pierre Poilievre was a member of Parliament (MP) for Carleton until 2025, when he lost re-election. As of May 2025, Poilievre is planning to run for election in Battle River—Crowfoot in a by-election after the MP-elect for that riding, Damien Kurek, resigned.[1]
  3. ^ There is no co-leader as of April 30, 2025, following the resignation of Jonathan Pedneault.[2]
  4. ^ Burnaby South, which Singh represented before the election, was abolished during the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. Singh ran in Burnaby Central, a riding which encompasses much of the same territory.

References

  1. ^ a b Ha, Stephanie (May 2, 2025). "Conservative MP gives up seat for Pierre Poilievre to run in byelection". CTV News. Retrieved May 2, 2025.
  2. ^ a b Caruso-Moro, Luca (April 30, 2025). "Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault resigns". CP24. Retrieved April 30, 2025.
  3. ^ "An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act". LegisINFO. May 3, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 25, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  4. ^ Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  5. ^ Harris, Kathleen (October 21, 2020). "Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons". CBC News. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  6. ^ Coyne, Andrew (October 28, 2020). "What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  7. ^ "Liberal Bruce Fanjoy topples Pierre Poilievre in Carleton". CBC. April 29, 2025. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  8. ^ Hunter, Justine (April 29, 2025). "Jagmeet Singh to resign as NDP Leader". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved April 29, 2025.