2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
| Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Incumbent two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis was re-elected with 48.7% of the vote in 2020. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party censured Tillis over his support of gun control and same-sex marriage.[1]
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2010. This election will be the first time since 2002 where a Senate race in North Carolina was held during a Republican president's midterm; that election was also for this Senate seat.
Background
A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed Donald Trump in both elections by 1.3% and 3.2%, respectively.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation, as well as both of the state's senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices.
As one of only two seats up held by a Republican in a state that did not vote for Trump by double digits in 2024, North Carolina is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026.
Republican primary
Senator Thom Tillis is considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts.[2][3]
Candidates
Declared
- Don Brown, attorney, author, and candidate for North Carolina's 8th congressional district in 2024[4]
- Andy Nilsson, teacher's assistant[5]
- Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present)[6]
Publicly expressed interest
- Michele Morrow, nurse and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2024[7]
Potential
- Lara Trump, former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025) and daughter-in-law of president Donald Trump[8]
Declined
- Mark Robinson, former Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–2025) and nominee for governor in 2024[9]
Endorsements
Thom Tillis
U.S. senators
- Jim Banks, U.S. senator from Indiana (2025–present)[10]
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[10]
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[10]
- John Boozman, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2011–present)[10]
- Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)[10]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present)[10]
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. senator from Louisiana (2015–present)[10]
- Mike Crapo, U.S. senator from Idaho (1999–present)[10]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[10]
- Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)[10]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. senator from Iowa (2015–present)[10]
- Deb Fischer, U.S. senator from Nebraska (2013–present)[10]
- Chuck Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa (1981–present)[10]
- James Lankford, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2015–present)[10]
- Cynthia Lummis, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2021–present)[10]
- Markwayne Mullin, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2023–present)[10]
- Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator from Alaska (2002–present)[10]
- Pete Ricketts, U.S. senator from Nebraska (2023–present)[10]
- Mike Rounds, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2015–present)[10]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Don Brown (R) | $21,600 | $1,895 | $20,546 |
| Thom Tillis (R) | $5,666,227 | $2,464,032 | $4,037,104 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[11] | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Thom Tillis vs. Mark Robinson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis |
Mark Robinson |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign Viability Research (R)[12] | November 13–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 42% | 35% | 23% |
Thom Tillis vs. "Someone Else"
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis |
Someone Else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign Viability Research (R)[12] | November 13–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 31% | 36% | 33% |
Thom Tillis vs. Lara Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis |
Lara Trump |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R)[13] | November 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 11% | 65% | 25% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Wiley Nickel, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–2025)[14]
Publicly expressed interest
- Roy Cooper, former Governor of North Carolina (2017–2025) (Decision expected in June 2025)[15][16]
Potential
- Jeff Jackson, North Carolina Attorney General (2025–present) and former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–2024)[3]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Wiley Nickel (D) | $2,403,943 | $1,919,094 | $521,848 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[11] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[17] | Battleground | Feb 20, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Lean R | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Tossup | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[20] | Tossup | Apr 8, 2025 |
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Thom Tillis vs. Roy Cooper
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Roy Cooper (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[21][A] | March 31 – April 4, 2025 | 867 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
| 45%[b] | 48% | 2%[c] | 5% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[22] | March 4–5, 2025 | 662 (V) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Victory Insights[13] | November 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
Lara Trump vs. Roy Cooper
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lara Trump (R) |
Roy Cooper (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights[13] | November 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
References
- ^ Sonasundaram, Praveena (June 12, 2023). "North Carolina Republicans censure Sen. Thom Tillis after stance on LGBTQ issues". The Washington Post.
- ^ Berryman, Kim; Pellish, Aaron (June 11, 2023). "Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is censured by North Carolina GOP delegates at convention". CNN.
- ^ a b Specht, Paul; Doran, Will (November 17, 2024). "Trump nominations put NC's Thom Tillis, the nation's 'most vulnerable' Republican senator, in the spotlight". WRAL-TV. Capitol Broadcasting Company. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
- ^ Kingdollar, Brandon (March 22, 2025). "Angry voters demand an audience in Raleigh as Thom Tillis kicks off Senate reelection bid". NC Newsline. Retrieved March 23, 2025.
- ^ Vespa, Emily; Hui, T. Keung (January 28, 2025). "Under the Dome: Tillis challenger launches 2026 campaign; top academic officer named". The News & Observer. Retrieved January 28, 2025.
- ^ Cohen, Zach C. (November 13, 2024). "Senate Republicans Face a More Competitive Senate Map in 2026". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
Tillis told reporters in September he plans to run for re-election
- ^ Anderson, Byran (March 31, 2025). "Former NC Superintendent candidate Michele Morrow seriously considering primary to Tillis". Anderson Alerts. Retrieved March 31, 2025 – via Substack.
- ^ Gancarski, A.G. (December 2, 2024). "Lara Trump dominates in Senate poll … but it's not in Florida". Florida Politics. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
- ^ Doran, Will (January 31, 2025). "Mark Robinson drops lawsuit against CNN, says political career may be over". WRAL-TV. Retrieved January 31, 2025.
Robinson said Friday he wouldn't run for Senate or any other office in 2026
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Fahlberg, Audrey (December 9, 2024). "Senator Thom Tillis Will Kick Off 2026 Reelection Campaign This Week with Fundraiser". National Review.
- ^ a b "2026 Election United States Senate - North Carolina". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ a b "Hypothetical Robinson-Tillis 2026 Matchup: A Dogfight Waiting To Happen" (PDF). Campaign Viability Research. November 25, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2025.
- ^ a b c "NORTH CAROLINA POLL: LARA TRUMP, THOM TILLIS, OR ROY COOPER FOR US SENATE IN 2026?" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
- ^ Robertson, Gary (April 9, 2025). "Ex-congressman Nickel launches bid to unseat North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis in 2026". Associated Press. Retrieved April 13, 2025.
- ^ Daniels, Steve (December 6, 2024). "Gov. Roy Cooper reflects on nearly 40 years in NC politics as term winds down, ponders US Senate run". WTVD. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
- ^ Nichols, Stephen Neukam, Hans (April 22, 2025). "Top Dems are convinced they'll get popular ex-Gov. Roy Cooper to run for North Carolina Senate". Axios. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
Cooper is unlikely to make a decision until June, a source familiar with his thinking tells Axios. Until then it's 50/50, the source said.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
- ^ "The Carolina Forward Poll: April 2025". Carolina Forward. April 14, 2025. Retrieved April 14, 2025.
- ^ "North Carolina Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. March 6, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Don Brown (R) for Senate
- Wiley Nickel (D) for Senate
- Andy Nilsson (R) for Senate
- Thom Tillis (R) for Senate
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